Consensus Statement on the Forecast for the 2018 October to December (OND) Season Rainfall and Temperatures over South Asia

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Thirteenth Session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-13) Colombo Sri Lanka, 26-28 September 2018
Consensus Statement on the Forecast for the 2018 October to December (OND) Season Rainfall and Temperatures over South Asia

Summary
 Some parts of southeast Peninsular India, most parts of Sri Lanka, southern parts of Maldives and some areas of northeastern part of the South Asia region are likely to receive above normal rainfall during the 2018 OND season. Below normal is most likely over southeastern part of the region, along the coastal areas adjacent to the north Bay of Bengal and southeastern most areas of Peninsular India. Normal rainfall is most likely over remaining areas of the region including northwest and central areas that generally receive very little rain during the season.
 Normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely during the 2018 OND season over most parts of the region.
 Currently warm neutral ENSO conditions prevail in the Pacific Ocean and these conditions are likely to turn to border line/ weak El Niño conditions during the OND season and continue till early next year. It is recognized that in addition to SST forcings from Pacific and Indian oceans, other regional and global factors as well as the strong intra seasonal climate features of the region will also have influence on the climate anomaly patterns over the region leading to increased uncertainty in the prediction of the season averaged rainfall and temperature patterns over the region.
 The consensus forecast outlook presented here has been developed through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world.
 A separate consensus statement for winter season (December 2018 to February 2019) will be issued in November 2018. For more information and further updates on the northeast monsoon outlook on national scale, the respective National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) may be consulted.